Streaming Can’t Be Blamed For Post-Pandemic Box Office Performance

Theater owners blamed Black Widow’s second-weekend box office slump on Disney+ Premier Access, but streaming isn’t the biggest (or only) factor.

You Are Reading :Streaming Cant Be Blamed For PostPandemic Box Office Performance

Black Widow suffered a massive drop its second weekend at the domestic box office and the National Association of Theater Owners is blaming Disney+ Premier Plus, but streaming can’t be blamed for the post-pandemic box office drop just yet. Even with Scarlett Johansson’s case against Disney for making Black Widow a duel release still ringing loudly around the industry. Movies are finally coming back after massive delays and an abysmal 2020 box office due to the coronavirus pandemic. A few new releases have even had some big wins at the box office, although theatrical revenue is still far below pre-pandemic levels.

While the box office appears to be in recovery, and some analysts have projected a recovery by 2025, we have yet to see the true impact of coronavirus on the theater industry or find out what kind of new normal to expect from the box office going forward. Changes to audience purchasing behavior, Hollywood production delays, shorter exclusive theatrical windows, and more will have a lasting impact on theater revenues, and with only a few big 2021 movies and an uncertain future due to coronavirus variants, we’re still learning about post-pandemic box office behavior.

While we don’t know the full impact of the various factors impacting the box office, we do have enough data to know streaming releases aren’t the only – or even the biggest – culprit, if there’s a culprit at all. Thanks to our knowledge of historical consumer behavior and the small sample of new releases, we know that, while theaters do need to better adapt to compete with streaming, it’s not to blame for Black Widow or any other 2021 release (yet).

F9 Had the Same 2nd Weekend Drop, Even Without Streaming

In the letter released by the National Association of Theater Owners, the first paragraph points to Black Widow’s “weaker than expected opening weekend” and “stunning second-weekend collapse” as evidence of its underperformance. The letter compares it to F9 and A Quiet Place II, concluding Black Widow would have opened at $92-$100 million if it weren’t for the fact that it was simultaneously released in theaters and on Disney+ Premier Access.

However, while Black Widow’s box office numbers look weak compared to the pre-pandemic box office, it’s right on par with other post-pandemic releases. In fact, it opened higher than F9, and had almost the exact same second-weekend drop (67.8% vs 67.2 percent for F9), even though F9 didn’t have a simultaneous streaming release. The previous two main-series Fast and Furious movies crossed a billion dollars at the global box office and beat the Marvel Cinematic Movies released in their respective years, so Black Widow outperforming F9 is actually an improvement if anything.

F9’s opening weekend domestic box office was just 71% of Fate of the Furious’ domestic opening in 2017, while Black Widow’s $80,366,312 opening is 86% of Spider-Man: Far From Home (which went on to surpass $1 billion globally) and $5 million more than Ant-Man and the Wasp. The major outlier is the other recent Marvel solo movie, Captain Marvel, which opened with nearly twice as much as Black Widow, but it’s hard to know if that’s a fair comparison, as Captain Marvel’s arrival in the MCU was teased in the Avengers: Infinity War post-credits scene and Captain Marvel was marketed as a major set-up for Avengers: Endgame, not to mention the fact that it was the first women-led MCU movie, whereas Black Widow feels years too late, and with her character dying in Avengers: Endgame it feels like more of a footnote for a 2nd tier MCU character than it does major setup for the future of the franchise, so direct comparisons there may not be valid.

Also, with a 55.1% third-weekend drop, Black Widow remains on-par for post-pandemic releases, streaming availability or no. Both F9 and A Quiet Place II had bigger drops than their predecessors in the second weekend but then had better legs than from weekend three onward. Black Widow’s 55.1% third-weekend drop is close enough to Spider-Man: Far From Home’s 53.3% drop to seem to be in a good place, although Ant-Man and the Wasp and Captain Marvel both had much better third-weekend drops, so it’s still to early to know.

Families Viewing Black Widow on Disney+ Premiere Access Doesn’t (Necessarily) Mean Lost Tickets

NATO also blamed families who may have seen Black Widow at home by paying $30 for Disney+ Premier Access, saying Disney didn’t necessarily see the same revenue per-viewer from Black Widow’s estimated $60 million in Premiere Access streaming since each family member wouldn’t be buying a ticket if they saw in on Disney+ like they would if they all saw it in a theater. The problem with this argument (unnecessary inconvenience and expenses expected from families aside) is there’s no audience segmentation data to show this, and the logic of the argument could just as easily go the opposite direction.

Theaters are expensive for families, and the cost of taking the whole family really adds up if there are multiple kids, especially if you include concessions. Not to mention the inconvenience of getting the whole family to the theater and supervising small children, or the potential added cost of childcare for any children who stay home. The $30 for Premier Access is more than enough incentive for families to see the movie opening weekend when they would normally wait until Black Widow’s home release. There’s no way for NATO to know if the people seeing the movie on Premier Access would have gone to see it in theaters if and simply waited for a physical media or streaming release if Disney+ Premier Access hadn’t made streaming from home an option.

Granted, there’s no data for this argument either, but the price and convenience appeal for families is significant enough that it at the very least blunts the argument that the whole $60 million would have gone to the box office to be shared by theaters instead. NATO does point out that the $60 million is a global figure and shouldn’t be compared to the domestic box office, however, they don’t also connect the dots on their own argument to then reduce their own claims of lost domestic theatrical revenue.

Black Widow’s Piracy Is Not To Blame For Lost Theatrical Revenue

NATO also points to Black Widow’s piracy numbers, claiming the Disney+ Premier Access release allowed for HD copies of Black Widow to spread almost immediately upon release, driving it to the top of most-pirated movie charts. Piracy is certainly a problem, but it’s not uncommon for the #1 movie in the world to also be the #1 pirated movie, regardless of quality. Avengers: Endgame was the most pirated movie the week after its release, and Captain Marvel was the fourth most pirated movie after its release, and in both instances, it was a copy recorded by a camcorder in a theater, so the quality doesn’t appear to play much of a role in the likelihood of it being pirated. NATO also pointed to other simultaneous releases that topped piracy charts as additional proof, particularly HBO Max’s releases, however with HBO Max only available in the United States (at the time) and theaters not fully open around the world, it’s a ripe situation for piracy, with the only option for much of the world with closed theaters to see some movies being via piracy.

In fact, history has shown piracy is typically more a matter of convenience than of cost. When music piracy was first becoming a problem, attempts to combat piracy were far less effective at reducing the problem than making music available for easier digital purchase. Once Spotify and other streaming music services became available, the amount of piracy occurring began to reduce. According to a 2018 YouGov survey found that of the people who quit pirating music, 63% had switched to streaming services, citing both ease of access and cost as factors in their decision. Logically, this behavior should follow for video streaming. In fact, RedPoint claimed growth in streaming services had “largely ‘killed’ torrenting” in 2018, going on to say there has been an uptick in recent years, however, data suggests the uptick is in geographic areas where certain content isn’t available on streaming and/or average incomes are low enough that streaming services are still cost-prohibitive. In either case, that particular uptick in torrenting doesn’t represent lost revenue since the consumer couldn’t purchase the content if they wanted to due to either price or availability.

NATO is Upset About Theater Monetization, Not Movie Monetization

The most important thing to keep in mind with NATO’s letter is the source. NATO serves as a representative for theaters in the United States, so their primary concern isn’t whether or not movies are making money, but whether or not they’re making money in a way that theaters share a slice of. Of course theater owners are going to point fingers at streaming every chance they can to explain low box office because streaming is its biggest competitor, especially when streaming is edging in on long-held exclusive theatrical windows, which were cut in half in response to the pandemic.

The NATO release is titled “Black Widow Shows Theatrical Exclusivity is the Way Forward,” and it ends with a condemnation of simultaneous streaming releases, but if an entire industry’s survival depends on artificial exclusivity and simply cutting any competition out of the equation, it may be time to rethink the business model. While Johansson is understandably upset by the idea of lost revenue, the solution isn’t necessarily killing simultaneous releases, but rather fixing the deals talent are signed to. And Disney’s alleged breach of contract should be the matter at hand there.

In terms of rethinking the model, first of all, theatrical exclusive windows won’t be financially appealing to studios who have their own streaming services, as many streaming platforms now see revenue that eclipses the studio’s box office haul, and studios keep a larger percentage of that revenue. It’s also worse for consumers, who would see reduced access and (in many cases) higher prices to new releases. It seems the only entity that truly benefits from exclusive theatrical windows are the theaters themselves, which suggests it’s time for theaters to find better ways to compete.

The situation is unfortunate, as the theatrical industry took a massive hit from the pandemic, and the big-screen experience is a cultural touchstone that deserves to survive. The box office rebound we’re seeing with movies like Black Widow shows how much audiences still value going to theaters, even if it’s not in pre-pandemic numbers, but theaters were already seeing waning attendance for nearly two decades before the pandemic hit, meaning even anti-consumer moves like bolstering exclusive windows and price increases won’t save them in the long run. Theaters need to learn from their streaming competition by competing on things like price, access, and experience instead of relying on exclusivity to save them.

Link Source : https://screenrant.com/black-widow-box-office-post-pandemic-streaming-blame/