Oscars: 5 Nominees Most Likely To Win Their Categories (& 5 Least Likely To Win)

The Academy Awards are on the horizon. Some categories feel like they’re already locked up and some nominees seem to have no real chance of winning.

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The 93rd Academy Awards are just a few weeks away and some of the races in categories have become a bit more crystallized as of late. As the precursor award shows barrel forward, the big picture becomes a bit narrower and it becomes more obvious which categories have front-runners and which are an absolute mess to try to predict.

Across the smorgasbord of nominees, there are a few who have emerged as the runaway safe bets (and some could have been labeled as that months ago), while others are more in the camp of “just happy to be nominated.” There are many great narratives heading into Oscar night (Will Glenn Close finally break her streak of losses? Could category fraud backfire on some actors?), but these are a few of the most (and least) likely winners on April 25.

10 Most Likely: Another Round

Whenever an international feature film breaks into one of the eight major categories, it becomes a near guarantee that the movie will win the international category. Take Parasite for example. As soon as it secured a Best Picture nomination, there was no chance it’d lose Best International Feature Film.

Now, Another Round is not a runaway juggernaut like Parasite was. But the fact that Thomas Vinterberg broke into the Best Director race means that Another Round is the odds-on favorite in the aforementioned category.

9 Least Likely: “Husavik”

Few Oscar campaigns were as inspiring as the one that rallied the Eurovision team to propel its centerpiece song, “Husavik,” to a Best Original Song nomination. However, that might just be the end of the line.

Is it the most deserving winner? Perhaps. It is the only song with an actual impact on the story of the film. But considering it was a long shot to garner a nomination, the Academy might be more inclined for a “prestige” sort of tune. Hopefully, they’ll at least sing in Icelandic on the broadcast.

8 Most Likely: Trent Reznor And Atticus Ross

Speaking of movie music, the team behind Nine Inch Nails is no stranger to the Oscars. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross won an Oscar for their score on The Social Network. This year, they’re nominated twice in the Score category!

As a pair, they garnered a nod for their Mank score, as well as for their score for Soul, composed in tandem with Jon Batiste. With only five nominees in the category, they have a forty percent chance of victory – and that’s before considering the fact that they’re front runners for their Mank overtures.

7 Least Likely: Lakeith Stanfield

On the morning of the Oscar nominations being announced, the most welcome surprise from Nick Jonas and Priyanka Chopra was when Lakeith Stanfield nabbed a nomination for Best Supporting Actor, thanks to his role as Bill O’Neal in Judas and the Black Messiah.

Is he truly a supporting actor, especially when considering that Daniel Kaluuya as Fred Hampton is in the same category? Perhaps not. While it’s lovely to see Stanfield in the mix, he’s definitely in the “it’s an honor to be nominated” bucket this year because this award feels like Kaluuya’s to lose.

6 Most Likely: Sound Of Metal

Returning to the sound categories, movies built around the concept of the auditory medium usually fare quite well. When it’s a story built around sound, it makes the Best Sound trophy have an easy winner etched ahead of time.

After all, the sound design would break the entire premise of Sound of Metal if it was faulty. Considering it’s up against a Tom Hanks double feature (Greyhound and News of the World) and another Mank/Soul affair, Sound of Metal should win in a walk.

5 Least Likely: Olivia Colman

A couple years ago, Olivia Colman seemingly emerged from nowhere to win the Oscar for her role in The Favourite, unseating the presumed winner of the evening, Glenn Close for her turn in The Wife.

Colman and Close are back to competing against one another (this time in the supporting race), but while Close nabbed a Razzie nod, she still has a better shot than Colman. The Father is liked by the Academy, but awarding an actor they praised just a few years ago is a rare occurrence (Mahershala Ali, anyone?). Considering Colman has conjured fewer precursor nominations than she did two years ago, it would take an even more massive shock to win in 2021.

4 Most Likely: Soul

Many have joked that the Best Animated Feature award might as well be renamed the Disney/Pixar award. There have been a few exceptions over the years (most recently with 2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse), but there probably won’t be this year.

Soul is a juggernaut. It’s an enriching, moving film from Pixar and definitely deserves the trophy. Other nominees, like Wolfwalkers and Onward, were also solid, but they’re all fighting for second place. Soul isn’t expected to lose this one.

3 Least Likely: Mulan

Another horse in the race from Disney is Mulan, their 2020 remake of the 1998 classic. However, at the 2020 Makeup Artists & Hair Stylists Guild Awards, it was Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio emerging as victors in aesthetic design. Mulan feels like it’s behind them.

So while the costuming race has become dual-pronged, Mulan is nowhere in the mix. It was a nomination intended to round out the batch, but between this and faltering visual effects to Tenet, don’t expect Mulan to pick up any hardware.

2 Most Likely: Chadwick Boseman

Speaking of Ma Rainey, the lead actor performance in the Netflix adaptation of the August Wilson play feels like the most guaranteed victory of the night. There doesn’t seem to be a chance Chadwick Boseman will lose this award.

Sadly, it will be a posthumous victory. The performance is so riveting and full of energy that it would win in most years. Boseman was an undeniable talent, after all.

1 Least Likely: The Father

Sadly for Hopkins, the Best Picture race doesn’t look strong for his vehicle, The Father. Even before nominations were announced, many expected One Night in Miami to take the drama’s spot in the list of eight.

But while The Father did pull off a slightly surprising nomination, it has not one shred of a chance to win the night’s biggest prize. That honor will likely go to Nomadland (with Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as potential spoilers), but The Father is nowhere in the mix.

Link Source : https://screenrant.com/academy-awards-2021-most-least-likely-winners/